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McCreevy Bows Out

It was the most dramatic announcement Ireland has heard since Roy Keane declared he came back. This time it was not the cork midfield dynamo, but another love him or loathe him figure. Fianna Fáil's political dynamo, Charlie McCreevy. The man who has arguably been the most talked about finance minister in the history of the state, announced his twenty-seven year parliamentary career was coming to an end, as he was to take his place as the European Commissioner for Internal Markets.

Controversy followed Mr McCreevy almost everywhere he went. For everyone who thought him a fiscal genius, there was at least one other that saw him as a sort of Thatcherite ogre, whose economic philosophy would copperfasten inequality and damage the social fibre of the state. Love him or hate him, Charlie McCreevy was always there on the Irish political scene and it seemed like he always would be. Why then was the holder of the single most prestigious Government portfolio sent to Brussels? The answer to that question was given very appropriately by Minister McCreevy himself. "Events, dear boy, events".

One event stands out above the rest as the reasoning behind this appointment. That event was the local elections. While dismissing pre-election reports of their political demise as greatly exaggerated, the post-mortem showed the predictions to have at least some substance to them. Thanks to the Fine Gael Collapse of 2002, the Soldiers of Destiny still held the trump card, but the post-election backlash came as a serious shock to the Fianna F?il system. The party lost serious ground in working class areas to Sinn F?in, and this has frightened the party into option. They see the ultra-right wing perception as a serious headache and the removal of ministers like McCreevy, will be their paracetamol. Or so they hope. Fianna F?il held their position as the party of the ordinary man in complacently high regard and now that this long perpetuated myth has been shattered by the existence of an alternative in Sinn F?in, Bertie Ahern is anxious to turn things around.

The catch all party have been catching too much, and with the PDs already in government, the PD wing of Fianna F?il as it is known, can and will be silenced when the long term stability of the party is in doubt. The upcoming cabinet re-shuffle will be interesting, to see if those considered hard right will be removed. Seamus Brennan and Martin Cullen will be among those for the chopping blocks, or at least demotions if that is to materialise. In removing the likes of McCreevy and possibly Brennan, An Taoiseach, is working on, in my view, a quite naive assumption, more of a hope that this will overturn the ground lost to Sinn F?in. The reality is however, that this kick up the backside has been a long time coming and those who have now opted for Sinn F?in, for the most part are there for the long haul. The real struggle for support must be with Fine Gael, to achieve the right-wing floating voter, not the left of centre nationalist or republican voter.

Sinn F?in can hurt Fianna F?il but only by supporting a Fine Gael led government, this is unlikely. The thought of Fianna F?il joining forces in coalition with the Shinners is equally unlikely, not because of the difficulties it would create for Fianna F?il, but because of the difficulties it would create for Sinn F?in. The hard left of Sinn F?in will not compromise on the coalition issue, hence any deal with Fianna F?il will spell political suicide. For this reason, I would say to Fianna F?il it may be a good thing to get rid of the Thatcherites, but it will not bring back the flock. Bertie Ahern would be far better trying to lure in the stray sheep than to chase after the horse that has bolted.

The Events of the next few weeks should be very interesting dear boy!

by

Donal O'Driscoll
14th August 2004

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